Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.225722 24.139633 26.198127 28.586198 31.292276 34.277531 37.839179
2026-01-25 19.060823 21.666284 24.658152 28.384985 32.955807 38.450055 45.665339
2026-02-01 16.929671 19.927153 23.549583 28.329383 34.595555 42.718714 54.379008
2026-02-08 15.314670 18.529619 22.577089 28.177554 35.948793 46.720504 63.515174
2026-02-15 14.050732 17.387250 21.732277 27.991381 37.117460 50.554233 73.201204
2026-02-22 13.027581 16.428896 20.987324 27.786934 38.147002 54.267942 83.536443
2026-03-01 12.225328 15.676598 20.421725 27.727270 39.321624 58.340541 95.516011
2026-03-08 11.541673 15.018900 19.909369 27.656555 40.422350 62.434201 108.700012
2026-03-15 11.203892 14.812512 20.014664 28.519972 43.142738 69.862428 131.195598
2026-03-22 10.613926 14.191988 19.442267 28.225879 43.810491 73.575156 146.853726
2026-03-29 10.148678 13.719601 19.050847 28.175006 44.884826 78.284071 166.903002
2026-04-05 9.799023 13.393926 18.855761 28.423716 46.534259 84.535060 194.125397
2026-04-12 9.356571 12.909462 18.388697 28.182076 47.263797 89.088200 219.503306
2026-04-19 8.969793 12.488888 17.995729 28.035720 48.173619 94.331945 250.797410
2026-04-26 8.637640 12.133797 17.683669 28.003415 49.316367 100.474834 290.252372
2026-05-03 8.313408 11.772076 17.333979 27.863786 50.207452 106.238098 333.572887
2026-05-10 8.008326 11.423891 16.982658 27.684767 50.983620 111.935987 382.772845
2026-05-17 7.723256 11.092874 16.638473 27.485308 51.683268 117.652285 439.309286
2026-05-24 7.481875 10.820867 16.378817 27.427363 52.708600 124.713417 514.180225
2026-05-31 7.255523 10.562222 16.125878 27.358075 53.697560 132.031915 604.226652
2026-06-07 7.179769 10.550822 16.311765 28.208492 57.142420 149.076868 811.551588
2026-06-14 6.946074 10.260254 15.972793 27.918969 57.577222 155.496177 944.366131
2026-06-21 6.759541 10.042021 15.754127 27.868903 58.654740 164.904764 1147.134352